Playing the NFL Odds to Set Your Fantasy Football Lineup

Playing the NFL Odds to Set Your Fantasy Football Lineup

Nov 21, 2013

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A regression to the mean. Being due. Coming back to Earth. Getting back on track. However you want to phrase it, the NFL odds suggest that a player won’t stay too hot or too cold for an extended period of time. Players are too good to be held down for too long. Defenses are too good not to develop a scheme to slow down someone that’s on fire.
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As we prepare for the 12th week of the 2013 NFL season, here’s a look at a pair of wide receivers that according to NFL odds should either cool off or heat up this week.
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Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown dominated the Detroit Lions last week to the tune of seven catches for 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Brown has averaged 95.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game on the season. He’s been particularly hot in his past three games, averaging 107.3 yards and a touchdown. The NFL odds are long that he continues his dominance because he’ll have to contend with Cleveland Browns shutdown corner Joe Haden.
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Haden most recently limited A.J. Green to two catches for seven yards. He had 51 yards in the first meet, giving him an averaged of 29 yards in two games against the Browns. Haden has had his way with Mike Wallace (15 yards), Stevie Johnson (19 yards), Calvin Johnson (25 yards), Jordy Nelson (42 yards), Dwayne Bowe (seven yard). Of that group of elite receivers, only Nelson scored and it was on a quick one-yard slant. The only star receiver to have success against the Browns this year has been Torrey Smith. Smith had 85 and 78 yards in two games.
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I wouldn’t avoid using Brown entirely, but temper your expectations. If you debating using Brown and a comparable option, let Haden be your tiebreaker.
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Eric Decker, Denver Broncos
On the flip side, Denver Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker has averaged 55 yards in his past three games without scoring a touchdown. In his first seven games Decker averaged 89.6 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. Wes Welker is trying to beat the clock to clear concussion protocol. Julius Thomas is deal with a knee strain. If either or both of those players miss this week’s matchup with the New England Patriots, Decker would see an increase in action.
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They would, in essence, be back to where they were last year when Decker averaged 66.5 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. Even if Welker and Julius are able to play, Decker could still have a productive day.
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