Percy Harvin’s Fantasy Trade Value, Updated Outlook Heading into Week 11

Percy Harvin is one of the NFL‘s elite weapons, and his imminent return to the field marks the return of a fantasy titan owners would be wise to bet the house on as soon as possible.

Harvin missed yet another game in Week 10 when the Seattle Seahawks took on the Atlanta Falcons, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the dynamic weapon is set to return in Week 11:

Percy Harvin not playing today vs. Atlanta but it would be an upset if he did not make season debut next Sunday vs. his former Vikings team.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 10, 2013

Apparently, owners have little faith invested in Harvin—he’s owned by just 38.4 percent of owners in standard ESPN leagues as of Week 10.

That’s quite the low number for a guy with impressive career numbers:

Percy Harvin Career Numbers
2009 60 790 52.7 13.2 1 6 15 135 0 1156 2
2010 71 868 62.0 12.2 3 5 18 107 1 933 1
2011 87 967 60.4 11.1 2 6 51 342 2 520 1
2012 62 677 75.2 10.9 3 3 22 96 1 574 1


Please keep one thing about these numbers in mind—they came in Minnesota with a fluid quarterback situation in which Harvin was held to limited production deep down the field, instead catching and creating at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Things will be much different with quarterback Russell Wilson in Seattle.

Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

As a rookie in 2012, Wilson threw for over 3,000 yards and 26 scores, while his top two targets—Sidney Rice and Golden Tate—both surpassed 600 yards and scored seven touchdowns apiece.

This season, Wilson’s numbers have been down but partially because the Seahawks have been a run-first team in search of a weapon.

That would be Harvin.

With Wilson’s No. 1 receiver in Rice out for the year, the Seattle offense has plenty of fantasy production awaiting Harvin—even more so than normal as Rice’s production has to go somewhere.

Seattle’s contest against Atlanta in Week 10 is a good example. Against a bottom-15 pass defense coming into the game, Tate had over 100 yards and a touchdown, while Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse combined for over 140 yards and a score.

Even better, it’s easy to worry about the fact that Harvin is coming off a shoulder injury that caused him to miss every game this season, but consider this—he’s fresh.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

While the remainder of the schedule is a mixed bag with three games against top-10 pass defenses and three against units ranked No. 16 or worse, owners can rest easy knowing all defenses will have to also account for the monster known as Marshawn Lynch and his violent style that has allowed him to average over four yards per carry.

Go ahead and add in the fact the Seahawks are dealing with injuries along the offensive line (they were without Breno Giacomini and Max Unger in Week 10), which only furthers Harvin’s value because the Seahawks need a quick-passing attack to explosive players to protect Wilson from excessive hits.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Is Percy Harvin a must-start upon return?

Is Percy Harvin a must-start upon return?

  • Absolutely—unlimited ceiling.

  • Nope—wait-and-see approach.

In the confines of the Seattle offense and the likelihood that Pete Carroll uses Harvin exactly as Minnesota did in the air (over 3,000 yards), on the ground (over 600 yards) and on special teams (over 3,000 return yards), Harvin is a sure-fire No. 1 wideout regardless of matchup.

It helps that Harvin will reportedly make his return against Minnesota (his former team), a team that ranks in the bottom five against the pass.

Expect a major day all things considered. Also, expect it to stay that way the rest of the season. Find a way to add or trade for Harvin in a hurry. He’s the boost a fantasy team needs to make a playoff push.

This also means Harvin’s trade value is through the roof. Owners looking to unload must demand a massive price, while savvy owners looking to acquire might try to lowball in the hopes of a steal.

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