FBO: Upset Watch Week 7

Football Outsiders looks at likely upsets and covers for Week 7

Updated: October 17, 2013, 3:44 PM ET

Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

The watchword for Week 7 is “preseason favorites.” A number of teams that have dramatically underperformed compared to preseason expectations are still listed as Week 7 favorites, including the Giants, Falcons, Steelers and 49ers. Games like this figure prominently on our list of the most likely upsets of the week (three-point spread or greater) based on FO stats:

• Buffalo (+8.5) at Miami
• Minnesota (+3) at New York Giants
New York Jets (+4) vs. New England
• Tampa Bay (+7) at Atlanta
• Tennessee (+4) vs. San Francisco

Despite all the underperforming teams that could easily get upset this week, our pick for the most likely upset involves two teams that, at 4-2, are matching or even exceeding preseason expectations.

To read more about which team is most likely to be upset in Week 7 in the NFL, you must be an ESPN Insider.

  • NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
  • Founder of Footballoutsiders.com

Leave a comment

300-101   400-101   300-320   300-070   300-206   200-310   300-135   300-208   810-403   400-050   640-916   642-997   300-209   400-201   200-355   352-001   642-999   350-080   MB2-712   400-051   C2150-606   1Z0-434   1Z0-146   C2090-919   C9560-655   642-647   100-101   CQE_Exam   CSSLP