FBO: Upset Watch Week 15

Football Outsiders looks at a likely upset and cover for Week 15

Updated: December 12, 2013, 2:21 PM ET

Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here), along with home-field advantage and injury data. Each week, we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

The big trend for Week 15 in the NFL seems to be superior teams favored on the road. Right now, seven different playoff contenders are favored on the road against teams that are essentially out of the playoff hunt. However, you can’t write off the effects of home-field advantage, which is why these games make for a slew of possible upsets in Week 15. Here are the most likely upsets with a three-point spread or greater:

• Minnesota (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia
• Oakland (+4) vs. Kansas City
• Pittsburgh (+3) vs. Cincinnati
• St. Louis (+5.5) vs. New Orleans
• Tampa Bay (+5.5) vs. San Francisco

The game we’re choosing for Upset Watch features a team coming off a big, emotional win, on the road to take on one of the league’s most underrated squads. It also features two young quarterbacks trying to read two very strong secondaries so they can find the right targets in their two flawed receiver corps.

To read more of Football Outsiders’ Upset Watch for NFL Week 15, become an Insider today.

  • NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
  • Founder of Footballoutsiders.com

Leave a comment

300-101   400-101   300-320   300-070   300-206   200-310   300-135   300-208   810-403   400-050   640-916   642-997   300-209   400-201   200-355   352-001   642-999   350-080   MB2-712   400-051   C2150-606   1Z0-434   1Z0-146   C2090-919   C9560-655   642-647   100-101   CQE_Exam   CSSLP