FBO: Upset Watch Week 10

Football Outsiders looks at likely upsets and covers for Week 10

Updated: November 7, 2013, 12:19 PM ET

Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders

Upset Watch appears every Thursday for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line over three points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.

We’ve reached the midpoint of the season. Every team has played at least eight games, which is probably enough data to get a good idea of which teams are truly good and bad. It’s also enough data to begin to get a little bit of an idea of which teams might be getting better or worse as the year goes along. The lines begin to adjust for teams that seem to be playing better than they did in the first couple weeks of the season, and a number of those teams show up on our list of the most likely upsets of the week (3-point spread or greater):

To read more of Football Outsiders’ Upset Watch for NFL Week 10, become an Insider today.

  • NFL analyst for ESPN Insider
  • Founder of Footballoutsiders.com

Leave a comment

300-101   400-101   300-320   300-070   300-206   200-310   300-135   300-208   810-403   400-050   640-916   642-997   300-209   400-201   200-355   352-001   642-999   350-080   MB2-712   400-051   C2150-606   1Z0-434   1Z0-146   C2090-919   C9560-655   642-647   100-101   CQE_Exam   CSSLP